Ecommerce's Monthly Talking Point - January 2001 Post-Bubble Positioning Where did I go? I've been busy with the development and launch of a new B2B service, RioBrand, and with my new book Mobile Commerce: Opportunities, Applications and Technologies of Wireless Business [end of unobtrusive inline ads]. And where has ecommerce gone? Being a natural fan of countercyclical theories, I'm very excited that ecommerce has become a taboo word in certain circles. Now that the media chatter has evaporated, it's possible for us all to achieve some serious goals. There are three fundamental reasons why ecommerce has a great future, and three typical reasons why some players have come unstuck. The fundamental stuff first: there's no sign of any rush to become unwired, to remove PCs from offices and homes and pour them into landfill sites, or to shun the web as a medium. there's no sign - despite Seattle and No Logo - that people are becoming any less materialistic, or showing any great inclination to quit consumption of goods and services. there's no sign that anyone on earth is being granted a longer day, or excused from the pressures (and pleasures) of our increasingly complex lifestyles. In other words, all the basic components that made ecommerce compelling in the first place are still in place, still as true, and still as significant as the day the Bubble first appeared on the lips of the stock market. (And it was true that the market was overvaluing tech stocks the first time Alan Greenspan pointed it out, sometime back in 1997.) So why have so many ecommerce players come unstuck? Most commentators and consultants wrap these issues up into two key insights. The first is that ecommerce companies misjudged the time (and cost) it would take to monetize traffic to their sites. The second is that they misjudged the complexity (and cost) of fulfilment. These are both solid observations. But there are some deeper reasons too why so many web-based enterprises have failed to last the course. These have become clear to me as my attention has been pulled toward the wireless arena, and the development of mobile commerce services. They're simple facts that are nonetheless hard to see when you base your world view on the desktop PC. Here they are: most people are not explorers. We do not like clicking on links and icons. We are fearful of interactivity. People who are confident with exploring web sites are a minority of the general population. And negotiating the web just isn't easy. most people are not rational. We don't compare products with each other according to selection criteria. Consumers who consistently research and select offers rationally are a minority - and a precious resource, as Malcolm Gladwell shows in his excellent book The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference. And the web just isn't pushy. most people are not stationary. Stopping and thinking about something is alien to our instincts. We need years of training before we'll sit quietly at a desk and pretend to concentrate. We can do it - but it's work. You can create motivation in stationary people, but you have to entertain them. And as we know, the web just isn't TV. I'll tie these ideas to the possibilities of mobile commerce in a subsequent Talking Point. In the meantime, now that the media party's over, the Flash has all run out and the lights are on full, it's a good moment to recommit to the basic concerns of any business: who are our customers how can I reach them how can I get them to act

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© 2001 Paul May